Targeting Crowds: Lone attackers and the use of vehicles as weapons

The increasing prevalence of lone actor attacks has transformed the landscape of public safety and counter-terrorism efforts. Among the most troubling trends in recent years is the use of motor vehicles as weapons, a tactic that has proven devastating in its simplicity and lethality.

The New Orleans attack on January 1, 2025, serves as a grim reminder of this phenomenon and underscores how target hardening and threat assessment remain crucial for preventing these events.

In the early morning hours of New Year’s Day, a driver deliberately plowed a pickup truck into a crowd of pedestrians celebrating in New Orleans’ French Quarter. The suspect, 42-year-old Shamsud-Din Jabbar, has so far claimed 14 lives and injured dozens more. Authorities found an improvised explosive device at the scene, along with an ISIS flag inside his vehicle. After crashing the rented pick-up trick, the suspect commenced shooting at people. He died after being fatally shot by police. While the FBI continues its investigation, the incident is being treated as a terrorist attack as Jabbar had pledged his allegiance to ISIS in a series of online video recordings before the attack.

The New Orleans tragedy is another incident of a vehicle-as-weapon attack — a recurring weapon of choice for lone actors. Only days earlier, A 50-year old male doctor, drove a car into a crowded Christmas market in Magdeburg, Germany, killing five and injuring over 200. Likewise, in mid-November 2024, a 62-year-old male who was aggrieved by his divorce settlement, plowed into a crowd at a sport complex in Zhuhai, China, killing 35 and injuring many more.

Vulnerability Creates Opportunity

Over the past two decades, lone actors have increasingly turned to vehicles to carry out mass casualty attacks. These individuals often act independently, driven by extremist ideologies, personal grievances, or mental health issues.

The simplicity of using a vehicle — readily available and requiring no specialised training — makes it an attractive tool for those intent on causing harm.

Vehicle-as-weapon attacks are not confined to any single region or ideology, making them a particularly insidious threat. The motivation of perpetrators are as varied as the locations — whether it be the Charlottesville, Virginia attack by James Fields Jnr who drove his car into a crowd of protesters during the “Unite The Right” rally, or the Incel inspired offence by Alek Minassian who rented a van and killed 11 people by driving through a busy business district in Toronto.

Understanding the factors that drive lone actors to use vehicles as weapons, in lieu of other means is crucial. Whether motivated by extremist beliefs, personal grievances, or mental health issues, these individuals exploit the accessibility of vehicles to carry out their plans with devastating effect. By analysing patterns, improving urban defences, and enhancing threat assessment protocols, law enforcement and policymakers can better anticipate and prevent future attacks.

Missed Prevention

The New Orleans attack serves as a wake-up call to the ongoing evolution of lone actor violence. It underscores the need for vigilance and innovation in addressing this ever-changing threat.

New Orleans had anti-vehicle barriers available at the time of the attack, but they were not deployed. Additionally, as NBC News reported, other barriers, known as bollards, had recently been removed because they were malfunctioning and needed replacement. This lapse occurred despite a 2019 report by Interfor International (originally reported by The New York Times), which had warned local authorities about the vulnerabilities in the bollard system. The report specifically cautioned that a vehicle ramming incident was one of the most likely potential terrorist attacks that could strike the French Quarter.

From a threat assessment perspective, public events and spaces must proactively address vulnerabilities to vehicle attacks. Security planning for crowded gatherings should incorporate physical barriers, controlled access points, and real-time monitoring to identify and neutralise potential threats. For instance, there should be strategic placement of reinforced bollards and barriers to prevent unauthorised vehicle access, particularly in pedestrian-heavy areas and during large public events. Controlled access points can be equipped with vehicle screening measures, such as spike strips or deployable barriers, to prevent potential attackers from entering restricted zones

Collaboration between urban planners, event organisers, and law enforcement agencies is essential to strike a balance between accessibility and safety. By adopting a multi-layered approach to threat assessment, including behavioural analysis and the use of advanced technologies, cities and councils can create environments that deter attacks while safeguarding public life. With the improvement of surveillance systems, cameras are now quipped with license plate recognition and real-time analytics, which can help detect suspicious vehicle activity before an attack occurs.

No one approach is a panacea, but together, strategies compound upon each, creating layers of safeguards and protections.

The failure to deploy existing anti-vehicle barriers in New Orleans, combined with the removal of malfunctioning bollards, exemplifies the critical importance of maintaining and deploying physical security measures. It also highlights the necessity for local authorities to heed intelligence reports and proactively address identified vulnerabilities.

As vehicle-as-weapon attacks continue to evolve, a comprehensive and forward-thinking approach to threat assessment and mitigation remains essential to protecting public spaces and saving lives.

Lone actors, with their evolving attack methods and varied motivations, pose one of the most persistent challenges to modern security, demanding constant innovation in counter-terrorism strategies and public safety measures.